JOBLESS CLAIMS

Definition

A weekly compilation of the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. This indicator, and more importantly, its four-week moving average, portends trends in the labour market.

Why do Investors Care?

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases

the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labour costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.

EFFECTS OF U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Economic Data	Up/Down	Dollar	Stocks	Bond
Interest Rates
Money Supply
Unemployment
Non-farm Payrolls
Gross National Product
Consumer Price Index
Producer Price Index
Trade Balance
Leading Econ. Indicators
Jobless Claims
Industrial Production
Capacity Utilisation
ISM
Personal Income
Car Sales
Retail Sales
Durable Goods
Consumer Confidence
Housing Starts
New Home Sales			no reaction
Construction Spending			no reaction	no reaction
Factory Orders			no reaction
Business Inventories			no reaction	no reaction
= Small Reaction = Average Reaction = Big Reaction